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TEL AVIV — Following a US senior delegation trip to Riyadh last week, multiple reports have suggested some progress in US efforts to rope Saudi Arabia into normalizing ties with Israel, but even optimistic Israeli officials know that prospects of such a move taking place under the hard-line Netanyahu coalition are slim at best.
Still, the more intriguing question is whether these prospects improve under a completely different Israeli government, for example, one led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but with centrist leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid replacing the ultranationalists in the current government? Such a scenario could go a long way to advancing the long-stalled normalization efforts.
The Biden administration would clearly welcome such a dramatic change in Israel, as expressed in private conversations by outgoing US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides and US special envoy to the Middle East, Ambassador Dan Shapiro. Both know that the current Israeli government bodes serious trouble for Israel and the region.
Would Netanyahu abandon the far right?
What they and other senior officials in Washington are asking themselves is whether Netanyahu wants to replace his hard-line colleagues, specifically Religious Zionism party leader (Finance Minister) Bezalel Smotrich and Jewish Power leader (National Security Minister) Itamar Ben-Gvir, and whether he is able to do so.
The other crucial question is whether Gantz and Lapid, or at least one of them, would be willing to pick up the gauntlet in order to extricate Israel from the unprecedented crisis that it finds itself in and add Saudi Arabia to the circle of peace. Lapid, responding to speculation that has surfaced in recent days regarding such a move, rejected the idea of joining Netanyahu, calling such a move, “the death of decency.”
A senior US official told an Israeli colleague who held a key position in Netanyahu's circle until recently that while the massive pro-democracy protests in Israel over the past seven months are a rare and impressive development, it cannot bring down the current government. But the US official added, the protests could motivate Netanyahu to oust the extremists from his government, easing public domestic and international pressure on him and on Israel’s pariah standing among Western states. Specifically, this would make the long-awaited agreement with Saudi Arabia a near certainty.
President Joe Biden is careful to avoid dictating to Netanyahu the makeup of his government. However, as Israeli officials have heard indirectly, Biden, who defines himself as a "non-Jewish Zionist," believes that the most important help that can be extended to Israel is to convey the urgency of establishing a broad-based, nonextremist government.
The American position indicates a certain detachment from the mood in Israel. As the former Israeli official told his American interlocutor, the protest movement will strongly oppose any move by Gantz and Lapid — both or one of them — to join a Netanyahu-led government. In other words, right now there is an enthusiastic matchmaker (the Americans), but neither a groom (Netanyahu) nor a bride (Gantz and/or Lapid).
What's more, there are no indications that the US hopes are realistic.
"Netanyahu will not give up his veteran allies," one of the prime minister's associates told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "He knows that the current government limits him; he does not think much of his ministers; he hardly convenes the security Cabinet … but this government is the key to his political survival.”
Netanyahu, the source added, cannot count on Gantz and Lapid given his acrimonious relationship with them and knows that at the first opportunity they would turn against him.
The same cannot be said about the ultra-Orthodox and ultranationalist parties in the government coalition. “Netanyahu is tied to them with an unbreakable chain and his personal future is far more important to him than the future of the country," the source said.
Nuclear issue "not an obstacle"
However, there are clear indications that Netanyahu is keen to make his dream come true of normalization with Saudi Arabia. The clearest is Israel’s near explicit approval of Saudi demands for US help in establishing a civilian nuclear program — in return for its agreement to normalization with Israel.
"The nuclear issue will not be an obstacle," a senior Israeli political source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. National security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi was also quite clear on the matter, telling the Kan public broadcaster that Israel’s approval is not required for the United States to allow a Saudi nuclear reactor for civilian purposes. “Egypt and the [United Arab] Emirates operate nuclear research centers, and these are not dangerous,” he noted.
However, Hanegbi did not address the main point of contention between the sides — the Saudi demand for US help in developing uranium enrichment capability. About two weeks ago, Mossad chief David Barnea embarked on a series of meetings in Washington that apparently focused on this issue.
"This will not be the make-or-break issue," the political source stressed. However, the other major Saudi demand for Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority could be a nonstarter because neither Ben-Gvir nor Smotrich will agree to the transfer of territories under Israeli control to the Palestinians. Their constituencies would laugh them out of office, the source added.
Netanyahu is in desperate need of such an agreement if he is to reverse the destructive direction in which his government is leading Israel. The prime minister already announced this week a large government investment in a future north-south rail line, adding that this train infrastructure “will be able in the future to link Israel to Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula, we’re working on that too.” The Israelis, Americans and Saudis are advised not to hold their breath. Netanyahu has been promising a train from Tel Aviv to the Red Sea port city of Eilat for at least 12 years. Planning has yet to begin.
