Netanyahu advances judicial overhaul in Israel's Knesset

TEL AVIV — Israel’s parliament approved Monday night on a first reading several components of the government's judicial overhaul. The approval followed daylong protests throughout Israel, including a mass rally outside the Knesset building in Jerusalem and a march along its walls.

Sixty-three Knesset members voted in favor of two bills limiting the power of the Supreme Court to overturn unconstitutional legislation and offering the government more power in choosing judges. Forty-seven Knesset members rejected the bill, with several other opposition members absent from the plenum.

The vote was the first of three required to turn the two proposals into law, an outcome that appears likely given the coalition government’s rush to anchor the controversial legislation. Like a train hurtling toward an abyss, the fast-track legislative process is being driven by radical ideologues seeking total control of the state’s institutions.

Clearly, nothing fazes Netanyahu these days. Not last week’s plea by President Isaac Herzog to suspend the voting in order to allow negotiations with opponents, nor a flood of warnings by leading Israeli and foreign jurists, Nobel Prize laureates, credit rating agencies, leaders of Israel’s high-tech industry, and many more. Not even the currency depreciation, which saw the shekel-dollar exchange rate plunge from 3.11 shekels when the government took power some seven weeks ago to 3.60 shekels Tuesday morning, have made a dent in Netanyahu’s resolve to weaken the judiciary in a bid to evade a possible conviction of corruption in his ongoing trial.

But is Netanyahu still in charge and able to apply the brakes, as the Biden administration has urged him to do, or is he being manipulated by the extremist partners in his coalition government?

Hard to say. Reports say Netanyahu frequently calls the heads of Israel’s security agencies urging them to exert pressure on the extremists in his own government — especially Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — and talk them out of dangerous security moves. Evidently, this suggests that the prime minister feels helpless.

Throughout his 13 years in power, Netanyahu strove for balanced governments comprising both sides of the political arena. Ironically, the leader of the right-wing Likud party is now considered the government’s most left-leaning standard-bearer given the extremist views of his messianic, ultra-Orthodox and nationalist partners. He depends on his partners for his political survival (and perhaps for his freedom) just as much as they depend on him to push through policies stymied by his previous governments.

The Shin Bet is in a bind. The agency’s chief Ronen Bar recently spoke with several senior politicians, including Justice Minister Yariv Levin, and warned them of the deteriorating public climate, violent discourse and rise of incitement that reawakens the specter of a political assassination. Police Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai made similar remarks on Channel 12’s "Meet the Press" on Saturday. These warnings, however, appear to fall on deaf ears. The governing coalition aims to complete its coup by the end of the Knesset’s winter session (April 2), while protest organizers vow to keep up their fight and even escalate it with increasing acts of civil disobedience, such as blocking main roads.

Looking ahead, most scenarios appear grim. If the proposed legislative package, which includes other laws with the same intent, becomes law by dint of the coalition’s Knesset majority (64 of 120), petitions will be filed with the High Court of Justice, which is likely to strike down this wild legislative drive. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has already said the entire legislative process is illegal, but the government is ignoring her despite her statutory role as its top legal adviser. If the High Court invalidates the laws, the government could ignore the ruling based on the newly adopted legislation barring High Court interference. This, in turn, would send the country into an unprecedented constitutional tailspin.

The military, the police, the security services, the banking establishment will all have to decide whether to obey the government or the court. Prospects of a military torn apart by disobedience and the country on the verge of civil war are a boon for Israel’s enemies. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is feeling vindicated that his famous "cobweb speech" (2000) describing a crumbling, weakened Israel is coming true, and the Palestinians are also jubilant.

Is a last-minute compromise feasible? It could be, although Netanyahu's partners will refuse to give up the core of the proposed legislation.

The ultra-Orthodox parties, for example, are pushing for an override clause that would allow the Knesset to strike down High Court rulings with a simple 61-vote majority. Why? Because this would allow them to override rulings mandating the military draft for all 18-year-old Israelis, including ultra-Orthodox seminary students, in the name of equality. Some Likud lawmakers, too, are ideologues unwilling to compromise on almost anything with the centrist and leftist forces they revile, while nationalists like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are pushing to neuter the court of its authority to strike down settlement construction and defend Palestinian rights.

Therefore, the question asked above is highly relevant: Is Netanyahu leading or being led? We will soon know.