Qatar’s record-shattering $300B World Cup bet will deliver returns, despite missteps

Al-Monitor Pro Members

Samuel Wendel

Senior Market Research Analyst, Al-Monitor

Nov. 21, 2022

Perhaps never before has a World Cup created so much scrutiny, intrigue and opportunity for its host country and the biggest winner (or loser) likely won’t be on the pitch in 2022. Qatar, a tiny gas-rich country of 2.9 million — with Qatari nationals comprising only about 13% of that number — is an outlier in World Cup history, as most hosts have been large and powerful nations. The Gulf state is compensating with outsized ambitions: The first MENA country to host has poured as much as $300 billion into tournament preparations, making it the most expensive World Cup ever. Underpinning these efforts are Doha’s goals of amassing influence and diversifying its economy. 

However, hosting the tournament is an expensive gamble that could still misfire as controversy, economic turmoil and geopolitical tensions could undercut returns. But the World Cup has already provided significant global exposure and new infrastructure has transformed the country, so Qatar is positioned to capitalize, even if the ultimate World Cup return on investment still hangs in the balance.

Scenario 1: The World Cup solidifies Qatar’s international credibility but fails to significantly boost its non-oil economy. The global exposure burnishes Qatar’s image and insulates it from further regional geopolitical tensions. But long-term economic benefits don’t emerge as expected, with Qatar struggling to transition to a knowledge-based economy. Meanwhile, gas production expands and keeps Qatar firmly dependent on hydrocarbons.

That said, Qatar can easily benefit from its new infrastructure. At a minimum, the stadiums can host future events, as sports is a growing sector in the Middle East. Plus, it’s an advantageous moment for Doha as a top LNG exporter, allowing it to invest further in economic diversification. 

Scenario 2: Qatar’s World Cup investment is a pricey misfire. Bad timing, underwhelming attendance and negative fan reactions sink Qatar’s ambitions. A botched tournament damages its image, while a global recession in 2023 dampens tourism and combines with lingering geopolitical tensions to undermine business and investment, spoiling Qatar’s diversification goals. 

Still, Qatar has already benefited from the World Cup. Its global profile has risen considerably since 2010 and infrastructure upgrades can provide lasting benefits. Neighbors like the UAE are also benefitting from spillover in World Cup tourism, which can aid in rapprochement. Plus, any World Cup financial burden shouldn’t sting too hard thanks to surging gas demand and expanding production. 

Scenario 3: A successful World Cup delivers a vibrant diversified economy. The tournament helps spur new investment, trade and tourism, producing a windfall in non-oil revenue and influence in the coming years that helps establish Doha as a regional power center rivaling Dubai. 

This is unlikely. Qatar won’t be able to recoup its enormous investments anytime soon while escaping the bad publicity arising from the World Cup will be difficult, potentially muting tourism aspirations. Despite rapprochement, Qatar’s ambitions may still irk regional rivals and upend ties.

Samuel Wendel is a senior market research analyst with Al-Monitor covering economic, tech and business trends across the Middle East. He has previously served as a journalist with Forbes Middle East and Wamda, where he reported on key industry developments spanning a range of sectors in the region.