In UAE, Brazil’s Lula looks east for climate investments, peace brokering

SAO PAULO — Twenty years after making the first trip by a Brazilian head of state to the Middle East, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s stopover in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday signaled a renewed focus in the region, albeit one curbed by a shift in Brazil’s position on the global stage since Lula first held power.

Lula’s diplomatic endeavors in the region in past decades were bold and demonstrated an unabashed approach with leaders that Western heads of state shied away from.

In 2010, he recognized the state of Palestine within the 1967 borders in response to a request from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas after the two leaders met. Amid nuclear nonproliferation talks with Iran, Lula — with a few breaths — encouraged then-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to continue to engage with the West and said that Iran had a right to a peaceful nuclear program.

“He had this notion that the Middle East was a place for Brazil to exert its soft power and some of its hard power too. But the geopolitical landscape of the region is no longer the same,” said Guilherme Casarões, political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.

When Lula first held office 2003-2010, there was still a window of opportunity in the Israeli-Palestinian talks and a chance to broker a deal with Iran, Casarões said, both of which are no longer pragmatic goals in the region.

Today, Lula has his sights set on brokering a peace deal in Ukraine. That ambition has so far earned him criticism from the United States over concerns that Brazil’s president is cozying up too close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Before concluding the UAE visit on Sunday, Lula suggested that the United States and Europe are continuing the war in Ukraine through defense aid rather than talking about peace. The White House was quick to respond, accusing Lula of "parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda.”

“Lula really wants to present himself as a mediator, as a natural negotiator and somebody who's really engaged in bringing peace to this world,” Casarões told Al-Monitor.

Despite his remarks ruffling Washington, the UAE trip on Lula’s return from China was an economic and diplomatic success, said Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Institute at the Wilson Center.

Biofuel investment and COP30

Amid the pageantry in Abu Dhabi, with an honor guard inspection and jets streaming Brazil's national colors over the presidential palace, the agreements struck centered largely on foreign investments and the climate, tying back to Lula’s priorities at home.

“The most important thing for Lula right now is economics, economics, economics,” said Monique Sochaczewski Goldfeld, historian and professor at the Brazilian Institute for Development, Education and Research in São Paulo.

Lula’s scouting for foreign investments goes back to his goal to be seen as a global leader on climate change.

“Lula needs to attract investments to Brazil, and attract investments to build infrastructure and infrastructure that is aligned to his goals in terms of positioning Brazil as a leader in any dialogue related to combating climate change,” said Santos.

The most notable deal was a commitment by the UAE-controlled Mataripe refinery to invest up to $2.53 billion (12.5 billion Brazilian reals) in biodiesel production. The refinery, located in the northeast Brazilian state of Bahia, is owned by an energy company founded by Mubadala Investment Company, one of two sovereign wealth funds for Abu Dhabi that invests in a range of Brazil sectors.

Lula praised the deal, and China pledged separately to invest $10.12 billion (50 billion Brazilian reals) as a sign that Brazil was "back on the international stage” in a break from the isolationist policies of Lula’s predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

“We’re opening ourselves to the world and we want the world to open themselves to Brazil,” Lula told reporters in Abu Dhabi, speaking through an official translator.

Executive director of Brazil Climate Center Guilherme Syrkis said the refinery deal is a step in the right direction.

“I think it’s a very good example of what we can retrofit,” Syrkis said, adding that there’s always room for more foreign investment in biofuels, as Brazil continues to work to transition away from oil and gas.

Lula stressed the country’s strong potential for hydroelectric and solar power development and made a pitch for Brazil as a place that foreign investors can confidently put their cash.

“Brazil has the rule of law. It has political stability, and it also will transform itself into a country that has economic stability,” the president said from the UAE.

Lula’s first trip after being elected president was to attend COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022. The summit, coming before the January inauguration, meant it was not an official trip. But it still demonstrated quick work on Lula’s part to begin making up ground lost on climate cooperation under Bolsonaro.

The UAE is set to host COP28 this year and voiced support in a joint statement following Lula’s meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for Brazil’s bid to host the climate summit in 2025 in Belém, capital of the northern state, Pará, and home to the mouth of the Amazon River.

But Syrkis said Brazil’s government needs to do its homework before taking on such a widely attended global event. Poor infrastructure in Belém, for example, could prove a challenge. “I don’t know how they’re going to handle the situation of hotels,” he said.

Santos, with the Brazil Institute in Washington, told Al-Monitor that Pará has an important stake when it comes to green supply chains from the Amazon. But she agreed that the state is “absolutely underprepared” to host COP30.

“It is not prepared to see such an amount of people. There are no hotels, there is no infrastructure for hosting an event such as COP. For that there would be the need for infrastructure to be built. And that's one of the avenues that could be explored between [Brazil and the UAE] — on how to build that infrastructure.”

Casarões predicted that Gulf countries can help Lula live up to his climate leadership role on the global stage. But he pointed out that it’s a long-term process to combat the warming planet — and that process won’t yield the Camp David Accords-like photo op that Lula is chasing to leave his mark on foreign affairs.

Lula and his counterpart also signed on to deepen ties on a range of other issues, including education, aviation and food security. Lacking from the agreement was any mention of promoting democracy — a key focus of Lula’s visit to the White House in February — or human rights in the Middle East.

But Casarões says that’s no surprise.

“When you’re a middle power like Brazil, it's very hard to name and shame countries because of their political regimes ... Brazil cannot be selective when it comes to foreign partners. It's a paradox because Brazil will have to keep talking about democracy while at the same time doing business with countries that are not democratic at all, including China and Russia,” he said. 

Next steps in the region 

A quick glance at Lula’s government will yield names denoting the deep influence of the Syrian-Lebanese diaspora in Brazilian politics.

Lula’s Minister of Planning and Budget of the Federal Government Simone Tebet is the granddaughter of Lebanese immigrants. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is likewise of Lebanese descent. There are others of Lebanese descent in federal government roles.

Brazil is home to an estimated 7 to 10 million people of Lebanese descent, according to the Foreign Ministry. That’s more people than are in Lebanon.

Goldfeld explained to Al-Monitor that it’s because of this community that the Levant was the main focus of foreign policy going back many years. “In Lula’s first term, the Gulf became important,” she said. Continuing to strengthen economic partnerships will be generally supported by Brazil’s Levantine communities given their already strong commercial ties to the region.

Exports from Brazil to Arab countries hit a record high in January based on data from over the last three decades from the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, with agribusiness coming out on top. The UAE ranked as the top importer, followed by Saudi Arabia and then Egypt.

Looking ahead to Lula’s next trip to the Middle East, Goldfeld predicted he would touch down in Turkey but that would have to wait until after the May 14 elections.

There may very well not be another trip on the horizon, Casarões argued, given the president is 77 years old and there is an urgent need to focus on domestic issues. He also pointed out that Brazil’s heads of state have gotten into the habit of using return flights from Asia for a stopover in the Middle East.

One such opportunity could present itself to Lula on a return from Japan in May. For the first time since 2019, Brazil has been invited to the G7 Summit to be held this year in Hiroshima.

But Casarões suggested that Brazil’s president could make other plans. “If I were Lula's adviser, I would recommend him to go to Ukraine — just to settle things.”