What does Rob Malley’s suspension mean for Iran?

TEHRAN — The news of US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley being placed on unpaid leave, which broke on June 29, has reverberated throughout Iran, capturing the attention of the media and even causing stock market fluctuations.

On Friday, Semafor reported that the FBI has now taken over the investigation into Malley's handling of classified material.

When Malley was appointed by US President Joe Biden to lead the talks with then-President Hassan Rouhani in spring 2021, pro-reform media outlets hailed it as a positive signal from the US government regarding the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal was reached between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and Germany) to limit Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting the imposed sanctions. However, former US President Donald Trump exited the agreement in May 2018 and reimposed the sanctions.

In the final days of Rouhani's tenure in 2021, Tehran and Washington stood on the brink of a significant breakthrough in revitalizing the JCPOA. Russian chief negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov described the talks as on the verge of a deal, with 90% of issues solved. However, the transition to a hard-line leadership under President Ebrahim Raisi in August 2021 necessitated a temporary pause in the negotiations, delaying the talks for few months. Despite several close calls, the anticipated agreement could not materialize.

While pro-government conservative media outlets have attempted to downplay the significance of this development, reformist sources view it as an ominous sign.

IRNA, the official news agency of the Iranian government, welcomed Malley's "dismissal" and considers it a "meaningful" occurrence "concurrent with the resolution of certain issues between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.” It highlighted the recent absence of anti-Iranian resolutions from its board of governors as an additional positive indicator.

IRNA suggested that “changing Robert Malley strengthens the possibility that the US government has taken steps to limit the activities of certain figures in order to reach deals with Tehran.”

The government-run daily newspaper Iran also said the news on Malley's suspension is not surprising. It argued in its issue on July 1 that “amid reports of breakthroughs in indirect negotiations between Iran and the West regarding the lifting of sanctions, alterations in the American negotiating team were not far from expectations.” 

The newspaper contended that these “changes” demonstrate the US departure from its “tested methods,” indicating a shift toward new figures from “a more realistic generation of diplomats.” According to Iran newspaper, the news about negotiations emerging from the deadlock suggests that Washington has now prioritized realism in its approach.

Basirat, a website affiliated with the political wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported last Friday that Malley's removal stems from political infighting within the White House. The news site suggested that Malley and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken had wanted to reach a comprehensive deal with Iran that encompasses various issues, such as terrorism, missile power and the axis of resistance.

The IRGC-affiliated Javan daily drew attention to a similar situation between the recent developments involving Malley and an issue with former national security adviser Robert McFarlane in 1987. The newspaper suggested on July 1 that although to a lesser degree, a comparable story may be unfolding. “In the McFarlane incident, officials from the Reagan administration violated US laws by engaging in covert negotiations with Iran and selling weapons during the height of the arms embargo. The intention behind this deal was to secure the release of American hostages in Lebanon and provide financial support to the Contra rebels in Nicaragua. Now, 36 years later, a similar story is being raised about Robert Malley,” the daily wrote.

Meanwhile, the Reformist Arman daily argued on July 1 that Malley's “departure” from the US negotiation team signifies the end of attempts to revive the JCPOA. In an interview with the Reformist outlet Entekhab on July 3, Javid Ghorban Oghlou, a former Iranian diplomat in South Africa, shares the same sentiment. Oghlou said that talks between Malley and Abbas Araghchi, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator during Rouhani's tenure, were on the verge of being signed but were prevented by the Iranian establishment.

“We didn't take advantage of the presence of Robert Malley, who could have paved the way for a deal. We are champions of not using opportunities,” he said.

What did Malley do in his last attempts?

Speaking to Al-Monitor, an informed source from the conservative camp revealed that Malley engaged in several face-to-face discussions with Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations Amir Saeed Iravani and made significant progress.

According to the source, Malley said that the Biden administration is no longer willing to return to the original JCPOA as they are facing a government in Iran that doesn’t honor its commitments; the regime had given a yes to a deal in September 2022, but the next day went back on its word.

The source also disclosed that Malley proposed extending certain sunset clauses of the JCPOA for 10-15 years. Moreover, Malley criticized the Iranian government's policy of not negotiating directly with US officials, the source claimed. In response, Iravani had made a satirical comment: "Don't ask difficult things."

The same source revealed that Malley acknowledged being under pressure from some US-based Iranians and Republicans who opposed striking a deal with Tehran.

Furthermore, a former senior Iranian diplomat who wanted to remain anonymous told Al-Monitor, "This is my belief. I think the characteristics of Robert Malley are such that his suspension can be considered a negative development in the process of negotiations and would make the possibility of a deal harder."

“The new approach by the US administration, led by Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk to sign a temporary informal agreement may not align with Iran's best interests," he said.

“The White House's intent appears to be to get rid of a headache named Tehran for now while providing only limited sanctions relief amid a multitude of pressing matters such as Ukraine. Consequently, this approach affords the United States ample time to seek additional concessions from Tehran in the future as Iran’s leverage has somewhat diminished following the resolution of US concerns and priorities like the Ukraine war,” the diplomat added.

In recent weeks, there have been indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Oman, where they have apparently talked about a possible cease-fire agreement.