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JERUSALEM — Israel’s President Isaac Herzog invited representatives of the government coalition and the two main opposition parties for consultations Tuesday evening to explore possible compromises after the government suspended its proposed judicial overhaul plan.
The controversial changes, which have been denounced by opponents as a "coup," would give the Israeli Knesset (and thus the leading parties in the coalition) more power over the country's judiciary.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had announced Monday night he was halting the legislation process of the judicial overhaul until summer in an effort to reach a large national agreement, opening the way for the president to reopen a dialogue. The decision to pause the overhaul came following massive protests and labor strikes that threatened to paralyze the country's economy.
Monday was certainly one of the most contentious and turbulent days that Israeli society has seen since the anti-government protests erupted weeks ago. The decision by Netanyahu to pause the overhaul brought some calm, but it is clear to everyone that the lull is temporary.
Netanyahu had made a remarkable comeback just a few months ago with the Nov. 1 elections, piecing together a right-wing, ultra-Orthodox government with a solid majority in the Knesset. Now, however, he is caught in such a low point that only time will tell whether he can recover from it.
Having caved to public and international pressure against the judicial overhaul, Netanyahu is the biggest loser to come out of recent events. Quick polls conducted Monday night by several of the country’s main media outlets highlight the intensity of the unfolding drama. Netanyahu lost his position at the top of the list of candidates best suited to be prime minister, while his Likud party lost 5-6 projected seats (in a poll on who Israelis would vote for if elections were held now). This puts it at the lowest it has been in years, with a projected 25 seats only.
The greatest damage was caused by Netanyahu’s firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, whom he appointed just a few months ago. He did this less than one day after Gallant warned that the country’s reserve forces were facing a fissure. Many of the top people who serve in the reserves — including pilots and reservists in the Intelligence and Cybersecurity corps — had threatened to stop showing up.
Netanyahu’s decision to fire Gallant was the result of a crisis of trust between him and his minister. The prime minister claimed that Gallant did not do enough to stop the growing phenomenon of people refusing to serve. Still, Netanyahu’s reaction was deemed irrational, vindictive and irresponsible, especially during the Ramadan season, while Israel faces growing military threats.
Firing Gallant created a chain reaction in which thousands of Israelis who had not yet demonstrated felt that Netanyahu had crossed a red line. That night, they poured out of their homes and could be found at all the major intersections. They were driven by a sense of urgency. Many of them sensed there was no responsible adult at the helm of the State of Israel. The judicial revolution advanced by Netanyahu’s government, perceived by many as a step toward a more authoritarian regime, turned into a genuine case of national anxiety.
The spontaneous eruption of a public protest and the ensuing announcement by union workers of a general strike caused Netanyahu to change his mind, halting his reformist legislation. In a speech to the nation, he called for dialogue between the opposing factions. The problem was that he was too late. The damage had already been done.
The person benefiting most from these developments is clearly former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who leads the opposition National Unity Party. In the past few days, Israelis witnessed their country turning into chaos. Footage kept showing young people lighting fires on the highways, while helpless policemen stood aside and watched. The vast majority of the people were looking for a level-headed figure to lead them. Many of them found solace in Gantz, who had called on Netanyahu to enter into a dialogue over the judicial overhaul without any prior conditions and in good faith.
Polls on Monday showed that Gantz almost doubled his support among the electorate so that if a snap election was held now he would pass the 20-seat threshold. The conclusion is that most Israelis want to see judicial reform, provided that it is brought about through dialogue. This gives Gantz room to grow. It is Gantz the conciliator — as opposed to current opposition leader Yair Lapid the rejectionist — who has gained the trust of the people.
Throughout the current crisis, Lapid advocated for a more hawkish and uncompromising approach to the current government and Netanyahu in particular. While Gantz has been calling for direct talks with Netanyahu and the Likud, Lapid is seen as taking a more uncompromising, less conciliatory approach. His popularity is declining because of this with the polls showing his party, Yesh Atid, losing several seats.
Netanyahu’s popularity is linked to the status of his coalition partners. Until just a few days ago, Netanyahu had no reason to worry about his political standing. With everything that has happened over the past few days, however, his position has become very tenuous. His partners on the far right, especially ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are the reason for this government’s reputation as extremist and dangerous. They are persona non grata in the United States, and this is harmful to a prime minister who cannot survive politically without them.
Other losers are the ultra-Orthodox parties and ultra-Orthodox society at large.
The current crisis brought back to the headlines the issue of serving in the army. As the weeks went by, more and more reserve pilots issued the following ultimatum to the government: If the legislation is not stopped, they will stop volunteering to serve. In fact, the fragility of the IDF, should officers refuse to show up for reserve duty, was one of the main reasons Netanyahu caved on judicial reform. And so, decadeslong anger against ultra-Orthodox for not sharing that burden of serving in the IDF re-emerged at the forefront of the Israeli national agenda.
More so, the takeaway from this by large numbers of voters who serve in combat units is that while they are not represented in the current government, they are nevertheless expected to comport with changes to the country’s governance imposed on them by ultra-Orthodox and religious far-right politicians. In other words, those who serve in the army and pay taxes are forced to abandon their democratic values by politicians who do not serve in the IDF at all or serve a very short amount of time and who pay a minimum amount of taxes if that.
That being said, from the moment IDF officers stepped into the political arena, the army could no longer be considered Israel’s most unifying element. If until now the army was regarded by most Israelis as the last sacred cow and it stayed out of the political quagmire, as of these last days this is no longer the case. The “people’s army” lost some of its stature as one of the very few bodies beyond reproach. In this sense, the IDF can also be counted among the losers.
