Libya factions reassess Wagner's operations in light of mutiny in Russia 

Recent developments in Russia, and Wagner's open mutiny against the Kremlin have sparked considerable speculation regarding the potential impact on Wagner's operations in Libya, a war zone it has heavily invested in in the last decade. 

A mysterious drone strike targeting Wagner in the east on Friday, almost one week after the mutiny, has only intensified this speculation. 

Military and security sources in eastern Libya with first-hand knowledge of Wagner's activities in that country have confirmed to Al-Monitor that there has not been anything out of the ordinary in terms of Wagner's activities or movements there since the developments in Russia unfolded. However, there appears to be some unease among military and civilian leadership in eastern Libya about the possible behavior of Wagner in the future. One of the questions that arises is this: If Wagner and its leadership are able to rebel against the Russian military and the Kremlin in such a way, what could they be capable of in a place like Libya? 

The Libyan National Army's (LNA) apparent willingness to discuss the departure of Wagner from Libya is more salient in light of its high-level engagement with the United States on this issue. During the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf to Benghazi last March, the LNA leadership was open to discussing the withdrawal of Wagner if certain conditions were met. Most notably, the LNA was concerned about the threat posed by the Turkish presence in western Libya, and it requested more military and security cooperation from Western nations as well as the provision of advanced air defense and weapons systems that could replace those provided by Wagner. 

There have been claims by sources close to the LNA that Wagner's leadership has warned LNA commanders against any attempt to unilaterally remove Wagner from Libya in collaboration with the United States. Wagner has reportedly threatened that such a move would have "consequences." These claims have not been independently verified, but they highlight the complex and delicate nature of the situation in Libya. The LNA is caught between two powerful foreign actors — Russia and NATO — and it is unclear which side it will ultimately align with. 

The LNA is also concerned about the possibility of rebellion or mutiny by Wagner forces in territories under their control. This stems from the fact that Wagner has been known to operate independently of the LNA's command structure, and it is unclear how the LNA would react if Wagner were to turn against them. Additionally, the LNA is worried that Wagner could fly in advanced weapons systems without coordinating with the LNA, which could put the LNA in a difficult position if it is forced to stop or control the supply of weapons to Wagner. The outcome of this situation will have significant implications for the future of Libya and the wider region. If the LNA is able to maintain control of Wagner, it will be a major victory for Russia and a setback for NATO. However, if Wagner were to rebel or mutiny, it could lead to further instability in Libya and even result in civil war. 

However, it is worth noting that there has already been significant conjecture regarding the role of Wagner in Libya since the conclusion of the war in April 2020. One particularly intriguing aspect has been the issue of funding for Wagner, especially after the United Arab Emirates ceased its financial support for Wagner's operations in Libya, which had been backing the LNA forces under the leadership of Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter. It has become apparent that, in addition to Russian assistance, the LNA and Libyan authorities in eastern Libya have taken up the responsibility of funding Wagner's activities in the country. Moreover, of utmost significance, Wagner PMCs have been deeply involved in an array of illicit business endeavors aimed at expanding their network across the African continent, notably in Libya. These activities encompass mining for gold and other precious metals, engaging in people trafficking, as well as orchestrating operations involving the smuggling of weapons, fuel and drugs. 

Wagner's presence in Libya holds paramount importance for the United States and its Western allies, capturing the prime spot on their agenda concerning the country. A notable instance underscoring this was the visit of CIA Director William Burns to Libya in January, during which extensive discussions took place between the director and key Libyan stakeholders, including Hifter, with a primary focus on Wagner. During Burns’ visit, the talks primarily revolved around Wagner's funding, accompanied by a clear and stern warning against any form of collaboration with the group. This warning carries even greater weight, given the United States' designation of the Wagner group as a "significant transnational criminal organization" on Jan. 26, signaling an escalation in pressure against the group. 

Is GNU targeting Wagner?

The recent developments in Russia have the potential to significantly impact the broader conflict in Libya. The most likely consequence will be on the current conflict dynamics, where the Government of National Unity (GNU) could use the Wagner issue to make life difficult for the LNA, given their links with the group. For example, in the early hours of Friday morning, a source in the GNU's Ministry of Defense leaked information to media outlets that the GNU, using Turkish drones, had targeted al-Khadim and al-Kharuba military air bases that Wagner typically uses to transfer weapons and fighters to and from Libya. LNA sources, on the other hand, told media outlets that the reports were untrue and that the GNU is leaking such information as a preemptive move to target the morale of their forces ahead of a long-anticipated attack on oil facilities in the eastern and southern regions, which are currently under the control of the LNA. 

The veracity of these reports is still being investigated, but they highlight the potential for the Wagner issue to further destabilize the situation in Libya. If the GNU is indeed targeting Wagner, it could lead to increased tensions between the two sides and even result in open conflict. Additionally, the LNA's denial of the reports suggests that they are concerned about the impact that the Wagner issue could have on their own morale and support. 

The situation in Libya is complex and fluid, and it is difficult to predict how the recent developments in Russia will play out. However, it is clear that the Wagner issue has the potential to significantly impact the conflict and could lead to further instability in the country. 

If Wagner is disbanded, it would be a major blow to the group's ability to operate in Libya and shift conflict dynamics in the country. However, if Wagner is not disbanded or integrated into the Russian military, it is possible that the group will become more independent of the Russian government and could act more aggressively on its own behalf.