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Can the Kremlin live without Wagner in Syria?
Probably, writes Anton Mardasov from Moscow, in a must-read analysis of the implications of the ill-fated Wagner coup threat for Russia’s foreign policies in Africa and the Middle East.
While replacing Wagner in Africa may be difficult, the challenges may be less in Syria. There, “it is hypothetically easiest to replace over time the extensive military and administrative structure of the Wagner PMC and solve the problem of mercenary salaries, which are several times higher than the salary of a Russian contract servicemen,” writes Mardasov.
“In addition to the cadre of military personnel in Syria, there is Redut PMC, created by the [Russian] MoD, staffed and funded by Airborne reservists. Also, the projects of Gennady Timchenko, a businessman close to the Kremlin, continue to operate in Syria, which may well absorb Prigozhin's economic projects in Homs and several other provinces,” he writes.
Meanwhile, Russian military police are reportedly rounding up Wagner in Syria, and a mysterious drone struck a Wagner military base in Libya. Beatrice Farhat has the report here.
Adam Lucente provides the background on which Middle East entities are facing Wagner-related sanctions.
Netanyahu banks on Saudi normalization for White House meeting
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has endured a kind of purgatory by not receiving a White House invitation six months (and counting) after winning his sixth term as prime minister. And this despite his decadeslong friendship with US President Joe Biden.
As Ben Caspit reports from Israel, prospects for a White House invitation may be getting better, despite Netanyahu’s acceptance of an invitation to visit China, which may have irritated some in Washington.
A presumed visit would occur, writes Caspit, against “the backdrop of advanced US-orchestrated contacts for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. At least five Israelis who have recently visited Washington say senior American officials told them that significant progress is being made in backchannel talks for historic normalization between Israel and the Saudis.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week appointed former US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro as senior adviser for regional integration, whose top priority will be Israeli-Saudi normalization.
Blinken also said this week that violence and Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank have put Israeli-Saudi normalization at risk, as Elizabeth Hagedorn reports.
“The question now is whether the interests of the three leaders — Biden, Netanyahu and MBS [Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman] — are strong enough to overcome the extremism of the current Netanyahu government, its policy in the territories and its treatment of the Palestinians,” writes Caspit.
Would an Iran ‘arrangement’ require congressional approval?
The Biden administration may have given up on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, but is nonetheless pursuing diplomatic paths to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Blinken told the Council on Foreign Relations this week that "there is no agreement in the offing” with Iran. But reports persist that an "informal arrangement" is being negotiated that would involve Iran limiting uranium enrichment to 60% and resuming some cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency; stopping proxy attacks on American contractors in Iraq and Syria; refraining from sending ballistic missiles and drones to Russia; and releasing Americans Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi and Morad Tahbaz imprisoned in Iran, all in return for a loosening of sanctions and unfreezing of Iranian assets estimated at $7 billion.
“Some observers say the administration's careful choice of words — denying an 'agreement,' but not an 'understanding' or 'arrangement' — may be an effort to avoid a vote in Congress, where there is little appetite for striking a deal with a country that’s providing Russia with lethal drones and cracking down on its own protesters,” writes Elizabeth Hagedorn.
“Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), the president is required to submit any 'agreement' concerning Iran’s nuclear program to Congress,” Hagedorn explains. “Lawmakers have 30 days to review the deal, during which time they could vote against it with a joint resolution of disapproval.”
A two-third majority in both the House and Senate would be required to overturn the president’s expected veto of a resolution of disapproval, if an agreement was indeed submitted. In 2015, Republicans, who held both chambers, were unable to advance a disapproval resolution on the JCPOA.
Israeli arms exports get boost from Ukraine war
Israel exported a record $12.5 billion in arms in 2022, with growth likely to continue as a result of the Ukraine war, David Rosenberg writes for PRO this week.
“Israeli weapons manufacturing is heavily weighted toward drones, missiles, electronic warfare and air defense systems, all of which have played a major role in the Ukraine conflict,” writes Rosenberg.
The Abraham Accords countries (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco) accounted for about $3 billion, or approximately 25% of total exports, up from $853 million in 2021 and none in 2020.
“Concerned about the standoff with Iran and drone attacks on critical installations by Iranian proxies, the UAE has reportedly deployed Israel’s Barak and Spyder air defense systems in the past year. Outside the Gulf, Morocco was reported in February 2022 to have bought a Barak MX air-defense system for $600 million,” Rosenberg writes.
Erdogan increases price for Sweden’s NATO bid
Amberin Zaman got the scoop this week that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has increased his demands to approve Sweden’s bid for NATO membership.
Turkey has demanded that Sweden revise its anti-terror laws to ban the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its Syrian affiliates from demonstrating against Turkey.
Al-Monitor learned that Turkey is now also asking that NATO refer to waterways connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean as the “Turkish Straits” rather than simply the "Straits,” as it is now, as well as revisions to NATO documents referencing Cyprus and the labeling of those groups Turkey considers terrorists.
The buzz had been that Erdogan, once reelected, would sign off on Sweden’s membership bid prior to the NATO summit July 11-12 in Vilnius, in return for the Biden administration signing off on the sale of F-16 fighter jets, currently blocked by Congress, in widely understood if undeclared quid pro quo.
New members of NATO are admitted following approval by the parliaments of all the alliance countries.
Turkey and Hungary are the only remaining holdouts on Sweden’s candidacy.
And Turkish-Swedish ties sunk further after a Quran-burning protest in Stockholm on Wednesday, the first day of Eid al-Adha, which was widely condemned by Turkish officials, as Ezgi Akin reports.
